Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected recover in 2017 and 2018, amid policy uncertainty according to WTO press release.
Understand the main points:-
World merchandise trade volume is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, but due to a high level of uncertainty, this is placed within a range of 1.8-3.6%.
This is up from a very weak 1.3% in 2016, as global GDP growth rises to 2.7% this year from 2.3% last year.
Trade growth in 2018 should pick up slightly to between 2.1-4.0%.
The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth fell below 1:1 in 2016, for the first time since 2001.
The slowdown in emerging market economies contributed much to the sluggish rate of trade growth in 2016, but these countries are expected to return to modest growth in 2017.
Export orders and container shipping have been strong in the early months of 2017, but trade recovery could be undermined by policy shocks.
Policy uncertainty is the main risk factor, including the imposition of trade restrictive measures and monetary tightening.
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